For Saturday Night Live fans, May doesn’t just mean season finale time—it means exit watch.
Heavy hitters like Heidi Gardner, Ego Nwodim, and Bowen Yang were among the half-dozen cast departures in 2025, and although no one expects quite as many exits in 2026, it wouldn’t be SNL without some annual churn.
So who’s most likely to leave the show ahead of Season 52? We’re breaking down the odds for every cast member—from vulnerable newbies to longtime staples who may finally be ready to move on.
Kam Patterson
Odds of returning: -400
If history is any guide, cast members are most vulnerable after their freshman year, with promising performers like Emil Wakim and Chloe Troast shown the door early in recent seasons. And off this year’s five newcomers, Patterson seems to have the biggest target on his back.
For one, though his “Weekend Update” features have been a hit with fans, he’s logged fewer sketch appearances than anyone besides Jost and Che. He also didn’t help his case earlier this year when he vented about the job during a stand-up set: “I have no idea what the f*ck I signed up for, dog. I’m kind of just there. And, listen, this sh*t is not for me, it’s for white people.”
Chloe Fineman
Odds of returning: -250
When cast members are hired, they sign seven-year contracts. While the show can cut them early, it’s harder for performers to walk away—which makes year seven a natural inflection point. Staying on means negotiating a new, more expensive deal, and historically that’s when SNL starts making tougher calls.
Fineman remains near the top of the Season 51 sketch appearance leaderboard, but she’s increasingly playing straight roles as newer standouts like Ashley Padilla and Veronika Slowikowska take focus. She’s also been expanding her film résumé—and even took a short leave of absence earlier this season to shoot Amazon’s Red, White & Royal Wedding—a familiar sign of a cast member preparing for what’s next.
Jane Wickline
Odds of returning: -225
Wickline has ranked near the bottom in screen time for two straight seasons—not a great indicator for longevity. Still, a string of recent “Weekend Update” hits suggests she may be finding her footing. A late-season surge could be enough to earn her another year.
Michael Che
Odds of returning: -200
For once, Che has kept quiet on social media after several seasons of hinting his SNL tenure was winding down. He’s joked for years that he’s had his bags packed—so how Che would it be if he finally followed through now?
Colin Jost
Odds of returning: -200
Che and Jost likely stay or go as a pair. But there are signs Jost could be eyeing an exit. After focusing largely on SNL for over two decades, his outside projects are picking up—from hosting Pop Culture Jeopardy! to signing on for a Peacock drama about an Ivy League dentist-turned-drug lord.
Tommy Brennan
Odds of returning: -150
Another first-year featured player, Brennan ranks just above Patterson and Wickline in sketch appearances. Still, he seems comfortable and confident in his limited chances, and it’s not hard to imagine him growing into a bigger role.
Ben Marshall
Odds of returning: -125
Marshall has a built-in advantage thanks to his Please Don’t Destroy tenure making him a known quantity before joining the cast. That familiarity hasn’t translated into super strong screen time, but he he has turned in some memorable sketch performances, including Beauty and Mr. Beast” and “Tutoring the Cool Kid.”
Mikey Day
Odds of returning: Even
Day is as dependable as they come, but like Fineman, he’s deep into his tenure. His ten seasons tie him with Tim Meadows among the show’s longest-serving cast members. With newer performers filling the everyman lane, this could be a natural exit point. Still, Day has said he’s aiming for a Kenan Thompson-style run, and his contributions as a writer would make him especially hard to replace.
Jeremy Culhane
Odds of returning: +150
Culhane made an early impression holding his own opposite Melissa McCarthy in “Free Sample” and has continued to shine on “Weekend Update” with characters like Tucker Carlson and Mr. On Blast. He’s currently neck-and-neck with Veronika Slowikowska for most sketches among the rookies.
Marcello Hernández
Odds of returning: +175
A year removed from “next big thing” status, Hernández has seen fewer sketches this season—which could just be a function of the show’s crowded cast. Still, he remains a strong presence, recently setting a single-episode screen time record, and continuing to generate viral characters like his Sebastian Maniscalco impression.
Andrew Dismukes
Odds of returning: +200
After leading the show in sketch appearances last season, Dismukes has taken a step back in Season 51. Still, he remains one of the show’s most reliable straight men—consistently elevating sketches with his dry, incredulous reactions.
Veronika Slowikowska
Odds of returning: +300
Through two-thirds of the season, Slowikowska logged more screen time than any of the last 25 first-year players. While her appearances have tapered off slightly, it’s hard to imagine her not returning for a second season.
Sarah Sherman
Odds of returning: +350
Sherman has increasingly shown range, taking on more traditional roles while still delivering her signature weirdness at the “Update” desk. That balance makes her a valuable—and unlikely to be expendable—part of the cast.
James Austin Johnson
Odds of returning: +500
As long as Trump remains in office, Johnson’s impression alone likely secures his spot. But that undersells his broader value as one of the show’s most versatile performers, capable of both precision impressions and offbeat original characters.
Kenan Thompson
Odds of returning: +750
After 23 seasons—more than half his life—there’s little left for Thompson to prove. And yet, by all accounts, he’s happy to stay. As he recently put it, “What a blessing it is to have steady employment.” Spoiler alert: This guy isn’t getting fired.
Ashley Padilla
Odds of returning: +1000
Season 51’s MVP is undeniably Padilla, the second-year featured player who’s lapping the field in sketch appearances and viral breakouts. The only reason Padilla wouldn’t return as a full-fledged repertory player is if Hollywood backed up a Brinks truck to send her to the movies. She’d likely find a way to shine at both.
Saturday Night Live returns with the first of its final three-episode run of Season 51 this Saturday, May 2, 2026, with host/musical guest Olivia Rodrogo.
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Interestingly, one of the latest screen time reports from this website said that after Chloe’s absence from the Connor Storrie episode, her screentime seriously cooled off. like she went from averaging 6 mins per episode to just 3. She’s still at the top of most sketches/screentime but that’s based off the strength of the first 12 of 17 eps thus far aired (70% of the season) but we’ll see how the final 3 eps of the season go for her
Your betting lines are all reversed. -200 means they are favorites. +200 means they are underdogs. Everything has to be switched here.
Exactly. Odds list is completely wrong the more likely would be a higher – and the less likely would be a higher +
The bloated cast size makes it ridiculously difficult for cast members to get meaningful air time and a proper end-of-season assessment. If Belushi was part of a 17-person cast, I am not sure even he would have been a guaranteed breakout.
This is why I recommend watching SNL UK. 11-person cast is more manageable a single person not getting screentime doesn’t affect the whole show.
Please. Jane has got to go! One of the worst cast members of recent memory.
This is an infuriating read because of the fundamental misunderstanding of odds. You got it completely wrong… like the opposite.