Last Sunday night on Last Week Tonight, John Oliver sounded the alarm on prediction markets. “It is shocking the extent to which prediction markets have proliferated,” he said, “and sometimes it’s been a little unnerving given the things that you can now bet on.”
With an account on Kalshi or Polymarket, users can wager on global politics, unfolding tragedies, upcoming elections, even whether it will rain in Tucson—and, increasingly, late-night comedy.
Oliver himself was surprised to learn bettors could wager on Last Week Tonight—“specifically on what words I’d say during our show on February 22nd.” That’s particularly absurd, he noted, given that his show tapes Saturday night in front of a live audience, meaning anyone in the room could theoretically have profited from information they learned more than 24 hours before betting closed.
A check of the major platforms reveals a growing slate of late-night–adjacent wagers. Among them:
- Who will guest on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert? Seth Meyers, Pedro Pascal, and Zendaya are among the current favorites to appear before the end of the show’s run, while Donald Trump remains a longshot.
- Which TV shows will be canceled this year? Late Night with Seth Meyers (31%), The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (17%), and The Daily Show (12%) are all on the board.
- Will Bill Maher visit the White House in 2026? A $50 bet would currently pay out $88.12 if he does.
Some markets stretch even further into the future. Who will replace Lorne Michaels at Saturday Night Live? At press time, producer Steve Higgins is the current favorite at 53%, but longshots like Tina Fey and Seth Meyers offer bigger payouts.
So far, bettors have wagered more than $44,000 on the SNL succession question alone, while more than $1 million has been wagered in recent months on Season 51 hosts.
At first glance, gambling on comedy futures sounds like an SNL sketch. But as with college and professional sports, the structure raises familiar concerns about insider information.
Consider the case of Damon Jones, who is expected to plead guilty to charges tied to sharing nonpublic injury information about players like LeBron James and Anthony Davis with bettors.
It’s not hard to imagine a similar scenario in late night. Anyone with access to booking decisions—or even a glimpse inside Michaels’ office—could theoretically gain an edge. In fact, betting activity around SNL’s final three guests this season spiked after fans spotted and deciphered a set of blurry index cards in the background of a behind-the-scenes video from Michaels’ office. The show formally announced those bookings shortly thereafter.
For now, meaningful consequences for trading on nonpublic information seem unlikely. Bettors operate behind anonymous usernames, and one insider at an online gaming company told LateNighter that the sheer volume of wagers makes it unlikely any individual $500 bet would draw scrutiny.
If anything, some platforms seem to embrace the dynamic. Oliver highlighted comments from Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, who appeared to encourage insiders to share information. “What’s cool about Polymarket is that it creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market,” Coplan said. In traditional finance, that has a different name: insider trading.
In theory, a staffer—or even a friend or family member of John Oliver himself—could profit by betting on a Last Week Tonight script. The host joked about that possibility, saying, “I will never do anything because someone online placed a bet on it. So you can be confident that if I ever say Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web3, it won’t be because I’m trying to move markets. It’ll be because I’m having a stroke.”
Jokes aside, Oliver sees a more troubling trend. “There is something so grim,” he said, “about these sites turning every aspect of our lives into a bet.”
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