John Oliver devoted Sunday’s Last Week Tonight to the rapid rise of prediction markets, focusing on how Kalshi and Polymarket have fueled a fast-growing, largely unregulated ecosystem where users can wager on everything from elections to global crises.
But while Oliver unpacked the sketchy ways the sites operate and market themselves, he reserved some of his sharpest criticism for the news organizations that are helping to bring them into the mainstream. Pointing to recent partnerships involving outlets like The Wall Street Journal, CNN, CNBC, and Fox News, he argued that presenting betting odds alongside news coverage gives the platforms undue legitimacy—accusing networks of “laundering these companies’ reputations” in the process.
While operators frame prediction markets as financial tools rather than gambling, Oliver repeatedly challenged that distinction, pointing to both their marketing and how users actually engage with the sites.
“That sure looks like gambling,” he said after showing clips of traders celebrating political bets.
Researchers have found that, like traditional gambling, most users lose money—often to a small number of highly sophisticated traders.
The segment traced the industry’s roots back to academic forecasting models before charting its recent surge, fueled by aggressive marketing, crypto integration, and a favorable regulatory climate. Oliver also highlighted connections to the Trump orbit, noting that Donald Trump Jr. has advisory roles with both Kalshi and Polymarket.
He also pointed to ways the platforms can be manipulated—from insider trading to users betting on events they may be able to influence directly.
At one point, Oliver noted that even Last Week Tonight itself had become the subject of wagers, with users betting on what words he would say during a recent episode. Because the show tapes a day in advance—and betting remained open until airtime—he pointed out that studio audience members could theoretically wager with full knowledge of the outcome.
Oliver also raised concerns about the types of events being wagered on, including wars, crimes, and other real-world tragedies, arguing that such markets can create perverse incentives by allowing users to profit from human suffering.
As the platforms continue to grow—particularly with the help of mainstream media exposure—Oliver warned they risk changing how audiences engage with the news itself.
“When something unexpected happens in the world,” he said, “it’d be nice not to have to automatically question whether it’s only because someone’s trying to move a market.”
